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1995-07-23
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Keynote Address
Wij geven kennis
by Anthony-Michael Rutkowski
Executive Director, Internet Society
The theme of this conference - wij geven kennis - captures perfectly both
the Internet as a means of fostering and sharing knowledge, as well as the
role of SURFNet as one of the Netherland's most valuable strategic assets
today. The value of the Internet and SURFNET are underscored by
development occuring so quickly, we get the surreal feeling of being
networking observers watching our own evolution unfold before our eyes with
each passing hour. I offer a few examples. At the Supercomputer'94 Panel
on the future of the Internet last Friday, all the panelists from very
diverse backgrounds and positions were asked to succinctly speak to the
future of the Internet. The agreement on the directions of the Internet
and the implications was really quite remarkable. The basic facts are
fairly obvious - the network and its major applications are now growing at
exponential rates. By the year 2000, present projections indicate that 187
million computers will be connected to an Internet constituting 4.1 million
networks dispersed around the globe. World Wide Web traffic growth is so
stunning that if it were to continue, in the year 1996 it will exceed the
world's telephone traffic and by the year 2000, there would be 4000
PetaBytes of traffic - enough to fill 10,000 1.2 Gigabit/sec digital pipes!
Panelist Larry Smarr, Director of a leading supercomputing center - noted
we don't have much experience living in such exponential worlds -
particularly with a technology that is also dramatically altering how we
and most of our institutions function. Others noted that humankind has
never before enjoyed the benefit of an open electronic mesh of so many
millions of information systems and people - and indeed it is people who
are the Internet's most valuable resource. In fact, it's argued that
currently, 80 percent of all the scientists who ever lived are now
reachable on the Internet. The consensus of the panel was that the
Internet was bringing about multiple profound changes that will ripple
through global society. Perhaps it was the scientific aspect that led
UNESCO Director General Mayor a few weeks ago to circulate a Report
prepared by Nobel lauriate Joshua Lederberg and a team of eminent
scientists who told UNESCO that the single most important action that could
be taken to enhance science today was to assure that all scientists
everywhere had effective Internet connectivity. But it isn't just
international science organizations that are realizing Internet's
potential. Three weeks ago UNCTAD's held a world trade summit where the
U.N. Secretary General called for Internet connectivity to enhance trade.
And several weeks prior to that, the world's international organization of
legislatures - the InterParliamentary Union - called for linking all the
lawmakers of the world together through the Internet in a document known as
the Tokyo Compact. The Internet is also a paradigm change for opening up
public insitututions. The Japan Prime Minister put up a WWW server in
August - followed several weeks later by the USA White House's unveiling of
a major Web portal to the entire federal government. Indeed, the WWW has
become so popular, that when the attendance at the second international Web
conference in Chicago a month ago was limited by the building capacity to
1000 people, some people began selling their registrations for twice the
price on the street outside the building. Scalping has come to the
Internet showbusiness. Speaking of showbusiness, even the Rolling Stones
last week did a MBONE multicast of their landmark concert from the VooDoo
Lounge. It's not surprising that the staid telecom and business carrier
world is increasingly joining the Internet revolution. In August, Fujitsu
announced it was leveraging its global Enterprise Internet backbone to
offer worldwide access to the Internet. IBM four weeks ago announced a
similar but more ambitious offering by bundling it's new OS/2 operating
system with user-friendly access to IBM Internet service using its Advantis
high speed backbone from up to 92 different countries. And just two days
ago on Monday, MCI Communications Corporation on Monday announced the
largest-scale suit of Internet services of any major carrier to date -
something characterized by the press as the 600 pound gorilla jumping into
the middle of the Internet business. And then there is Microsoft's Bill
Gates who promises to help reach that 187 million Internet host figure even
sooner than December 1999 by bundling no-brainer Internet access with every
new copy of Windows95. It is all rather incredible - if not breathtaking.
Having worked in almost every segment of the broadcast, telecommunications
and information networking business in many different institutional and
professional capacities, I frequently get jaded. But not in the Internet
environment, for what is taking place is a dynamic so far beyond anything
else, that it defies comparison. Facets of Internet These different
experiences over the past few weeks symbolize what I call "facets of
Internet." Internet is much more than just a new kind of network for
transporting data. Rather it is a broad "redefining paradigm" - in other
words, a fundamental transformation that encompasses: building information
infrastructure from the bottom-up; a robust global mesh for directly
linking billions of computers and thousands of computer processes on
whatever telecom and computer platforms that exist anywhere in the world; a
means for open collaboration in the hyper development and evolution of new
technologies and applications; transforming the structure, methods, and
individual skills within enterprises, institutions, and professions of all
kinds; a huge, rapidly growing market sector for internet-related products
and services. 1. Bottom-up Information Infrastructure The last decade had
profoundly transformed the way we conceptualize and create information
infrastructure. The "old world" was oriented exclusively around highly
structured monoliths of the telco and early computer worlds that were
planned and operated by big government and corporations. The basic plans
flowed "top-down" from millions of hours of huge formal meetings and
literal mountains of paper which purported to chart the future of
information infrastructure for decades to come. They provided a plethora
of abstractions and standards that no one quite understood or was able to
effectively implement. Enormous directed monies were to flow into these
projects pursued by national monoliths, and trickle-down information
infrastructure would eventually settle into place. There is no intent to
denigrate these top-down efforts or the many people who were involved.
Indeed, several years of my own career and those of many colleagues were
invested in these efforts. However, top-down just did not happen as
planned. Instead, a combination of VLSI, PCs, workstations, Local Area
Networks, routers, and elegant user friendly software found an enormous
marketplace that motivated individual initiative and investments. At the
same time, long haul transport technology offered increasingly cheap
bandwidth, and national governments allowed facilities-based competition
among telecoms and deregulated value-added services. Under combined
pressures from rapid technological change, competition, and affordable new
systems, the world of information infrastructure began a speedy
transformation. At just the right time, robust TCP/IP technologies were
available to serve as the universal intelligent interface among computers.
As a result, enterprise networks, distributed network management and
applications, and the global Internet became universally implemented.
Massive bottom-up infrastructure happened, proliferated, and a new paradigm
prevails. This has been a remarkable decade-long learning experience about
what information infrastructure is all about, and in nurturing its
development. It's discovery time in cyberspace, and we are constantly
learning about what works and what doesn't. This is not to say that all
top-down activities are frivolous - no more than asserting that all bottom
up activity will produce meaningful infrastructure. Similarly there is a
lot more to information infrastructure than just the Internet. This "facet
of the Internet" provides some invaluable models and lessons about key
components of national and global information infrastructure and where we
are heading in the future. The most prominent of these lessons is that
bottom-up infrastructure succeeds most efficiently and spectacularly, and
for these reasons is becoming understood and is being embraced by national
administrations. 2. The Internet Global Mesh Constant Evolution: Three
Stages. The Internet and internet technology has been growing and evolving
constantly since its inception in Vint Cerf's imagination and first
articulation more than 20 years ago on the back of an envelope in San
Francisco. At the outset, it had multiple facets that addressed real
needs: a means to share information system resources across multiple
diverse platforms, a highly robust self-healing network that could operate
across almost any medium to survive nuclear holocaust, and a way to bring
together experts spread across the world in "collaboratories" to create,
innovate, improve and produce in many different research areas. It is now
into the third stage of that evolution. The first stage was the early
years under the aegis of the US DOD ARPA and the province of a relatively
small closed community. Those people not only developed the technology,
but the cooperative mechanisms and institutions that allowed it to scale
and for further innovation to occur. The genius of it all can still be
appreciated at major Internet meetings which typically bring together a
significant cross-section of world's most highly motivated and innovative
computer networking communities in every country.
Following DARPA's divestiture of the network and the technologies in the
mid-80s, the second stage unfolded. It represented a period of major
development by: 1) vendors for a growing enterprise internet market, 2)
the USA science agencies, HEPNet, SURFNet, and their counterparts in other
countries who scaled the network to support open global academic and
research activities, and 3) early innovators in the business sector who
began providing public access services and using the capabilities. Interop
itself was a key part of this second stage as it fostered massive
investment in private open systems infrastructure. The third stage is now
unfolding as almost everyone, everywhere who provides, uses, promotes, or
funds information systems and infrastructure becomes involved in the growth
and use of the Internet, its technologies, and applications. If the first
stage took us to 2000 hosts over the first ten years, and the second state
scaled the connectivity from 2000 to 1 million over eight years, the third
state of Internet growth is now marked by host counts that will likely
proceed from 1 million to 100 million over the next five years. The growth
of the attached networks is now publicly announced every three days, and we
are literally watching it grow before our eyes. Dimensioning Internet The
Internet is generally dimensioned two different ways. The core portion
consists of the subset of registered internetworks that are known to have
IP connectivity among themselves; while the larger Matrix Internet consists
of the core Internet plus all the networks known to be connected to it by
some lowest common denominator application like messaging. The Core
Internet and its metrics. As of the end of September, there were 440,000
allocated network addresses, 50,000 registered at the global Network
Information Center. As of last week, there were about 43,000 known to have
connectivity among themselves. For the last several years, the most widely
used backbone network - the NSFNet - has provided a useful reference point
for making consistent measurements. Total networks increased at the rate
of 160 percent last year; 183 percent outside the USA. As of 1 Nov, IP
traffic is being routed to networks in 90 different nations. It's known
that the CERN backbone usually sees more reachable networks, and with the
emergence of commercial public Internet backbones as well as the
termination of NSFNet next year, the total number is likely to increase
even faster. Another major trend - in addition to globalization and the
rapid increases - is revealed in analyzing the kinds of new networks
attaching or domains being registered. The developments here are quite
amazing. Beginning about six months ago, commercial concerns in the USA
and Canada began registering .com global domains at an increasing pace. As
a result, there are now 27,000 registered .com domains versus about 2,000
.edu domains. .com registrations continue at a rate of around 3,000 per
month. This has also begun to show on host counts, and there are now more
.com hosts shown attached to the network than any other domain. It's quite
apparent that nearly every country is experiencing exponential Internet
growth - with sharp upturns in growth within the past 12 months. In
Europe, the number of connected networks in most of the larger countries is
now about 1500. In addition to dimensioning the Internet in terms of
networks, it is also possible to do so by computer hosts reachable. Since
the earliest days of the Internet, Mark Lottor has been attempting to
measure potentially reachable machines. The results are generally released
every three months. As of the end of October, the number of hosts was
nearly 4 million and getting more steeply exponential with each passing
quarter. The figures are also a bit on the low side, as the RIPE NCC
consistently counts several percent more European hosts tha Lottor does.
The Matrix Internet The core Internet's massive size, high performance, and
open connectivity has proved a magnet to nearly every other kind of
computer network. As a result, many other large and extensive networks
have attached themselves to the core Internet's periphery. This includes
networks based on specific platforms like BITNET, FidoNet, AppleLink,
Minitel, and UUCP networks, as well as specific application networks for
Email - for which there are numerous examples like X.400, AT&T mail,
MCIMail, SprintMail, CompuServe, etc. These peripheral networks create a
larger Matrix Internet that currently reaches an estimated 170 countries,
and provide many millions of people with lowest common denominator Email
connectivity. In this capacity, the Internet is truly the world's
universal electronic messaging backbone. 3. Open Collaboration and
Development. Just as the Internet is technologically a virtual matrix
among up to 4 billion computers and 64,000 process ports on each of those
computers, so is it also a matrix among 20-30 million people who are
directly or indirectly using those computers and processes. This is an
enormously empowering capability that allows almost instant creation of
workgroups, discussion groups, and audiences of all kinds. The capability
transcends time zones, national and organizational boundaries, and in the
near future even language. In its ultimate extrapolation, it is the
ultimate open society where anyone, anywhere can provide or receive any
information to anyone within seconds. From its inception, the Internet was
intended as more than just a computer network, but as a means of
facilitating collaboration and development at great speed - sometimes
described as technology transfer among disparate groups with different
strengths like academics, industry researchers, and business entrepreneurs.
In short - "to give knowledge." This activity has taken two forms: 1)
research and development of new distributed network techniques and
applications, and 2) innumerable user populations employing the Internet
and its technologies as tools to significantly enhance their specific
professional activity or pursuit. An entire new engineering and research
discipline has been cut out of whole cloth - distributed autonomous
networking - complete with its own development dynamics and methods.
Almost all new open networking applications and products have come out of
the Internet innovation "soup." With amazing rapidity, ideas for a new
application or service get vetted on a discussion group or at IETF "BOFs"
and proceed through a standards working group. At the same time, the code
is placed on a network server. In the process, innumerable users employ
the code, grow the market, refine the code, and a large commercial market
emerges in a matter of months that is finely tailored to end user needs.
This process of developing running, standardized code through the Internet
has been highly successful. It is the more general user populations,
however, who are embracing the tools in vast numbers across the planet.
The enormity of the implications are just beginning to be understood. And
in each of these fields, the people "networked" constitute the majority of
early adopters and innovators. 4. Transforming Enterprises, Institutions,
and Professions. The effects of large-scale networking of enterprises,
institutions, and people are now being realized. Certainly traditional
barriers whether they are reporting hierarchies, institutions, country or
geography are being obliterated. There is also a certain "compelling"
effect that beyond a certain point promotes ever larger numbers of people
to become networked. Not having an Internet mail address today has become
a major liability in many businesses and professions. The result has been
to transform old institutions, create new network based enterprises, and
bring about programmes to implement these transformations. The best known
of the latter is the Clinton Administration's Reinventing Government
initiative. However, on a smaller scale, efforts are now underway in
Canada, Chile, Argentina, France, and Poland - as well as many
international organizations. Some major older corporations like IBM and
Chrysler have embarked on well-known efforts to get Internet technologies
introduced among their employees to purposely break down both internal and
external barriers. In an increasingly competitive environment, lacking
network connectivity and employees with skill sets to effective use the
network tools, is a major liability that's quickly reflected in either
diminishing market share or lost opportunities. An entirely new and
potentially massive new field is now emerging around the Internet and
distributed networking. Getting connectivity is only one component. More
significant (and perhaps more difficult) is obtaining and retraining people
to effectively use these tools in many different enterprises. This
daunting task involves not only equipment, but cultures and attitudes.
And, it also pervades every office in a corporation or institution, from
the CEO to the average staff member in every department. Not suprisingly,
there is a focus on developing these skills now at the elementary and
secondary school levels so that children at an early age are able to
comfortably use and create information on computers, to discover and make
available networked information resources, and to collaborate seamlessly
across networks with their peers. These are the survival skills of rapidly
emerging global internetworked environment. 5. A Huge Market Sector. The
estimated 20-30 million users on the Internet constitute an ideal market.
The users are predominantly young, middle to upper class, well- educated,
and highly motivated. As the number of Internet users grows another two
orders of magnitude, these characteristics are likely to remain, in
addition to becoming ever more global. The Internet provides an
exceptionally low cost mechanism for interacting with this audience. This
interaction not only includes public relations and advertising, but testing
of target audiences, sales, and customer support. The principal major
caveat concerns the strong traditions for propriety and privacy that rule
out mass mailing or other intrusive techniques. Such misconduct or
fraudulent behavior can also propagate very quickly. The Future These
different facets of Internet will assure an exciting and constantly
evolving future. But where is it taking us? It seems meaningless to talk
about "what's after the Internet" anymore than to talk about what's after
the telephone. As long as we have computers speaking to other computers
via distributed networks, we will have internets. The next few years will
surely witness a sizable fraction of the worlds computers linked together
via the Internet. Indeed, a hundred years from now, history may well
record the emergence and implementation of an Internet protocol as a
profound turning point in the evolution of human communication - of much
greater significance than the creation of the printing press. No other
form of human communication other than actual meetings allow people to
actually interact with each other in a collaborative fashion in short time-
scales. It is this capability of rapid, large scale, low- cost interaction
of people and sharing of information that are unique Internet properties -
which have profound implications across a broad spectrum of human
activities. Business on the net. Certainly the many initiatives using
applied encryption technologies and dove-tailing with pre- existing EDI
work, points to all kinds of business- related activity on the Internet.
The announcement at the 2nd WWW conference a few weeks ago of Cybercash,
Digicash, E-cash, First Virtual, and NetBill as low-overhead, secure forms
of payment - represent giant steps toward dramatic scaling of Internet as a
means for business transactions. However, this is not likely to displace
"free information" given the ever increasing use of the Internet by public
institutions, for commercial public relations, or just the propensity of
human beings to share their own information. I know this is a special
concern of the SURFNet community, but is seems highly unlikely there will
be any diminishment of freely available information - indeed there will be
more. As very inexpensive Internet access becomes available worldwide, we
will continue to see bountiful information that is already producing needs
for new services of information discovery and filtering. Ubiquity. Other
major indicators include both the ubiquity of the access, as well as the
ease of setup and use by ordinary people. Access involves the diversity of
the media being employed (such as local dialup, freephone dialup, CATV
LANs, N-ISDN, and VSATs), and the ever-expanding number of service
providers - especially major carriers and local resellers. Resellers are
especially important in this phase of internet evolution because of the
frequent significant level of interaction with customers in using the
technology. However, some of the newly emerging software for PC
environments is so object oriented and self configuring that only minimal
computer skills are required. Here also, we will see major churn as almost
every kind of provider imaginable competes for providing a variety of
Internet services. The market is expanding so fast, there is undoubtedly
room for most of them in the near future. Over time, they will be
differentiated with some growing, others merging, and others going out of
business. What Modulates Internet Development? In the face of all these
positive indicators, however, it is useful to consider what kinds of
conditions result in the growth or stifling of internet developments. Over
the past few years, some specific information on Internet diffusion has
become evident. Plainly, many external conditions modulate implementation
and use. For example, available capital for investment is always a major
factor with any new technology. Even with basic telephone systems, the
correlation of telephone lines versus national GNP is almost a straight
line. However, the diffusion of internet technologies, networks, and use
require conditions that are really rather unique and go well beyond just
capital investment to a host of factors that collectively are sometimes
called "culture." A threshold condition is the freedom introduce and
operate Internets without significant governmental or institutional
impediments. The Internet consists almost entirely of tens of thousands of
private networks all constructed and operated by largely private
initiative. The Internet functions very effectively on a global scale
through a number of multilateral and bilateral agreements among backbone
service providers and end-user networks. The Internet is a creature of the
unregulated, highly dynamic computer networking field - not the traditional
regulated monopoly telecom environment. The Internet does best where the
environments are subject to little or no regulation of any kind. Internet
monopoly environments are invariably the worse kind - being antithetical to
the very concept of what the Internet is all about. Such environments are
also contrary to the Annex on Telecommunications in the new General
Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) and the appended schedules of
specific commitments by 96 signatory countries plus the European Union.
These provisions elaborate on some of the desirable conditions needed for
Internet fertility, namely access to markets and cost-oriented underlying
transport circuits. However, even in competitive environments, some
regulatory authorities have a penchant for becoming involved in the
operations of Internet providers - either reviewing business plans or
operational agreements. Given the incredibly fast changing operational
dynamics of the Internet scene, such intrusive regulation is inevitably
stifling, as backbone providers increase in number and move from bilateral
to multilateral arrangements among themselves to lessen the complexities
and enhance ubiquitous connectivity. Other major diffusion factors include
the cost of underlying transport bandwidth and the ability to acquire
current-technology computers and software at low-cost. These factors go
both to the national competitive conditions for basic telecom services and
oversight of the pricing practices of dominant carriers. Dominant carriers
in most countries often attempt to charge prices for underlying circuit
capacity that are orders of magnitude greater than the actual costs -
principally in a misguided attempt to force customers to use the carrier's
own value added networks and technologies, and to prevent competition. The
great circuit price disparities between Europe and the USA, for example,
prompted the European Nuclear Research Center (CERN) two years ago to
publicly document these practices and plead for a change. Because end user
computers and peripheral hardware are such a fundamental component of
Internet growth and development, national practices which heavily tax and
restrict computer imports and use, also have a major adverse effect on
Internet diffusion. Restrictions or taxes on the use of modems, for
example, have widespread negative effects. The Challenges and Promises No
electronic network mesh has consistently grown on the scale at the speed of
the Internet. As a result, it has throughout its history been constantly
challenged to develop new technologies, standards, and administrative
techniques to provide greater bandwidth and additional services to more
users through ever more complex architectures. However, each order of
magnitude scaling becomes more difficult. Problems associated with
addressing and security seem largely transitory - with a combination of
technology, new standards, and administration providing effective
solutions. The next few years will likely witness nearly every computer in
the world being potentially connected to an internet. This seems well
within the realm of feasibility. However, what numbers are actually
connected to the Internet or accessible - through the Internet and at what
bandwidths or time periods - depends largely on the available underlying
infrastructure and cost of service. Bandwidth seems destined in the
long-term to approach zero within and among most metropolitan areas of the
world, but the increasing complexities of managing ever larger numbers of
Internet networks is going to drive operation and maintenance costs up.
The result for end users may mirror the computer world where the
performance just keeps on increasing at relatively constant cost. In fact,
the evolution of computers and computer networks is sure to proceed hand in
hand. And collective innovative Internet genius will doubtlessly produce
an endless stream of imaginative applications and tools. I believe that
Europe will play a major role in this development. The statistics indicate
that the growth curves in most European countries are just as steep as
anywhere else. Unfortunately regulatory, policy, and pricing barriers have
prevented those curves being a much larger magnitude. However, the good
news is that many positive changes seem underway. These matters will be a
centerpiece of the G7 Information Society Conference at Brussels in late
February, and you all can help by making sure your national government
participants are sufficiently aware of your concerns. In closing, let me
comment that it is at the human and institutional levels that major
unknowns arise - but also offer the greatest promise. The autonomous,
heterogeneous, flat model of the Internet seems intrinsically a good one.
It will be constant discovery time in Cyberspace, but a world of shared
minds that transcends the accidental boundaries of history, the distance of
geography, the machinations of institutions, and the mischief of
manipulation, is potentially one filled with discovery, fulfillment and
fascination for all peoples - individually and collectively. SURFNet has
been playing a remark role not only in providing the underlying
infrastructure, but also in educating and bringing about major cultural
changes as well. "Wij geven kennis" is a motto for everyone to follow.
The Internet Society as the international organization for the Internet -
working together with SURFNet - is dedicated to help make this happen.